Posted Oct 31, 2008 10:59am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession
Related: ^dji, ^gspc, ^ixic, SPY, DIA, AXP, QQQQ
A big rally this week has salved something for the bulls, but October 2008 is going to go down as one of the worst months in financial market history.
Heading into Friday, the Dow was down 15.4% for the month, on track for the 11th-worst in its history and the worst month since 1987. (Earlier this week the Dow and S&P were on track for the worst month since 1931 so "worst in 21 years" doesn't seem as awful.)
October was the worst-ever month for Japan's Nikkei, despite this week being its best week ever.
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities plunged 24% this month, the steepest decline since 1956. Crude is on track for a record monthly drop, copper its biggest retreat in two decades and gold its worst performance in 25 years, Bloomberg reports.
Even as the markets seemed to find some footing this week, the economic hits keep on coming, which is why San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen used such stark language yesterday.
Thursday's Q3 GDP report, while better than feared, was the weakest since 2001 and featured the first drop in consumer spending since 1991 and the biggest since 1980.
Friday's personal spending data showed a 0.3% decline in September, the biggest drop in four years.
In October, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to its lowest level since 2001.
Friday's U. of Michigan consumer confidence survey was the weakest on record, confirming the Conference Board's earlier report.
At the same time the economy is slowing, consumers are reigning in spending as they worry about job security. Getting out from under a mountain of debt is certainly good for individuals. But from a societal perspective in a consumer-fueled economy it raises what economists call "the Paradox of thrift."
2008年10月31日星期五
Asia stock markets mixed, Nikkei slides
Asia stock markets mixed, Japan's Nikkei falls despite first rate cut in 7 years
BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) -- Asian markets were mixed Friday as Japanese stocks fell despite the first rate cut in seven years while Indian shares soared to catch up with the global market rally after a holiday there.
Investors were also digesting data overnight that confirmed the U.S. economy -- a major export market -- had contracted in the third quarter.
Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index sank 5 percent to 8,576.98 despite the Bank of Japan's decision to lower its key rate from 0.5 percent to 0.3 percent. Analysts said some investors viewed the measure as half-hearted and wanted a full quarter-point cut.
South Korea's market extended the previous session's 12 percent rally with the Korea Composite Stock Price Index up 2.8 percent at 1,113.29. Australia's key index climbed out of negative territory to close 0.4 percent higher.
"Clients are a little more willing to re-enter the markets as the sense of panic has subsided a bit and valuations have been hammered to ridiculous levels," said Andrew Yates, vice president of foreign institutional sales at Asia Plus Securities in Bangkok.
"Obviously further volatility is likely but funds are picking up stocks at cheap levels for end of month rebalancing of portfolios," he said.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 1.5 percent at 14116.75 after vaulting 12.8 percent Thursday but smaller Asian markets such as the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand posted gains of 3 percent or more while Jakarta's main index surged 7.1 percent.
In India, the benchmark Sensex index surged 7.3 percent to 9,693.43 as traders caught up with Thursday's rally in Asian markets, when investors cheered a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and further central bank steps to boost dollar liquidity in emerging markets.
Japanese stocks were modestly lower for much of the day after jumping nearly 10 percent Thursday on expectations of a rate cut by the central bank.
But when the Bank of Japan announced the cut -- first since March 2001 -- the market fell sharply. With interest rates in Japan already the lowest in the developed world, many analysts doubt looser monetary policy will do much to stimulate the world's second largest economy.
The Bank of Japan's policy board were split 4-4, so Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa, who has the final say in the event of a tie, voted in favor of the cut.
The bank warned that "adjustments in the world economy stemming from financial crises in the United States and Europe have further increased in severity."
Honda Motor Co. fell 13 percent to 2523 yen, Mitsubishi UFJ Finance was down 5.4 percent at 598 yen and Sony Corp. was down 2.2 percent at 2280 yen.
U.S. data overnight confirmed the world's largest economy contracted in the July-September quarter by an annual pace of 0.3 percent, marking the worst showing since it contracted at a 1.4 percent pace in the third quarter of 2001.
"The U.S. economy obviously contracted a lot more than the data says and it is likely to be revised lower. There are clear signs the contraction accelerated from September onward so the fourth quarter will also be weak," said Yates.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 189.73, or 2.11 percent, to 9,180.69. The S&P 500 index rose 24.00, or 2.58 percent, to 954.09.
U.S. stock index futures were lower, suggesting Wall Street would pull back Friday.
Confirmation the American economy is on the ropes sent oil below $65 a barrel in Asian trade with light, sweet crude for December delivery down $1.71 to $64.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday Friday in Singapore.
BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) -- Asian markets were mixed Friday as Japanese stocks fell despite the first rate cut in seven years while Indian shares soared to catch up with the global market rally after a holiday there.
Investors were also digesting data overnight that confirmed the U.S. economy -- a major export market -- had contracted in the third quarter.
Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index sank 5 percent to 8,576.98 despite the Bank of Japan's decision to lower its key rate from 0.5 percent to 0.3 percent. Analysts said some investors viewed the measure as half-hearted and wanted a full quarter-point cut.
South Korea's market extended the previous session's 12 percent rally with the Korea Composite Stock Price Index up 2.8 percent at 1,113.29. Australia's key index climbed out of negative territory to close 0.4 percent higher.
"Clients are a little more willing to re-enter the markets as the sense of panic has subsided a bit and valuations have been hammered to ridiculous levels," said Andrew Yates, vice president of foreign institutional sales at Asia Plus Securities in Bangkok.
"Obviously further volatility is likely but funds are picking up stocks at cheap levels for end of month rebalancing of portfolios," he said.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 1.5 percent at 14116.75 after vaulting 12.8 percent Thursday but smaller Asian markets such as the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand posted gains of 3 percent or more while Jakarta's main index surged 7.1 percent.
In India, the benchmark Sensex index surged 7.3 percent to 9,693.43 as traders caught up with Thursday's rally in Asian markets, when investors cheered a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and further central bank steps to boost dollar liquidity in emerging markets.
Japanese stocks were modestly lower for much of the day after jumping nearly 10 percent Thursday on expectations of a rate cut by the central bank.
But when the Bank of Japan announced the cut -- first since March 2001 -- the market fell sharply. With interest rates in Japan already the lowest in the developed world, many analysts doubt looser monetary policy will do much to stimulate the world's second largest economy.
The Bank of Japan's policy board were split 4-4, so Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa, who has the final say in the event of a tie, voted in favor of the cut.
The bank warned that "adjustments in the world economy stemming from financial crises in the United States and Europe have further increased in severity."
Honda Motor Co. fell 13 percent to 2523 yen, Mitsubishi UFJ Finance was down 5.4 percent at 598 yen and Sony Corp. was down 2.2 percent at 2280 yen.
U.S. data overnight confirmed the world's largest economy contracted in the July-September quarter by an annual pace of 0.3 percent, marking the worst showing since it contracted at a 1.4 percent pace in the third quarter of 2001.
"The U.S. economy obviously contracted a lot more than the data says and it is likely to be revised lower. There are clear signs the contraction accelerated from September onward so the fourth quarter will also be weak," said Yates.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 189.73, or 2.11 percent, to 9,180.69. The S&P 500 index rose 24.00, or 2.58 percent, to 954.09.
U.S. stock index futures were lower, suggesting Wall Street would pull back Friday.
Confirmation the American economy is on the ropes sent oil below $65 a barrel in Asian trade with light, sweet crude for December delivery down $1.71 to $64.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday Friday in Singapore.
Beaten down, American consumers burrow deeper
Friday October 31, 2:23 am ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
American consumers clobbered by housing, credit and financial fallout
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Beaten down and watching their wealth shrink, Americans are burrowing ever deeper -- cutting back on spending and spelling more trouble for the sinking economy.
One of the biggest problems saddling the country is damage from the housing market's collapse. Mounting foreclosures, falling home prices and soured mortgage investments are taking their toll on both individuals and businesses alike.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who is scheduled to speak via satellite Friday at a Berkeley, Calif., conference on the mortgage meltdown, is likely to call on government officials and lawmakers to keep working on ways to provide more relief.
The Bush administration is considering a plan that would help around 3 million struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure by having the government guarantee billions of dollars worth of distressed mortgages. The plan also could include loan modifications that would lower interest rates for a five-year period.
Fallout from the housing meltdown has spurred the worst global credit and financial crisis in more than a half century. To combat the problems, the government has taken a flurry of bold steps. The Treasury Department is pouring $250 billion into banks in return for partial ownership and the Fed this week started buying mounds of debt from companies. It also slashed interest rates to 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the last half century.
A new batch of economic reports out Friday is likely to offer fresh confirmation of the stresses weighing on American consumers. Income growth is expected to barely budge in September, inching up just 0.1 percent, according to economists' estimates. Consumers probably trimmed their spending during the month by 0.3 percent, economists predict.
And, given the weak jobs market, employers aren't expected to be overly generous with compensation to their employees. Workers' wages and benefit costs are expected to rise 0.7 percent during the third quarter, economists are forecasting. If that happens, it would mark the same size increase from the previous quarter.
All in all, the economy as a whole contracted at a 0.3 percent pace in the July-to-September quarter, reflecting a sharp pull-back by consumers. They ratcheted back spending by the largest amount in nearly three decades, the government reported Thursday. Consumers' disposable income took its biggest drop on records dating back to 1947. Retailers are bracing for a grim holiday buying season.
Economists say tougher times are still ahead. Believing consumers are cutting back even more right now, they predict a much larger economic decline -- anywhere from a 1 to 2 percent rate -- during the current October-December period. That would meet a classic definition of a recession -- two straight quarters of shrinking GDP.
The grim news comes just days before the nation picks the next president. Either Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain will inherit a deeply troubled economy and a record-high budget deficit that could cramp spending plans.
"I think it's very, very important not to hold out the prospect of silver bullets that will correct these crises," Lawrence Summers, a Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, said in Boston on Thursday.
"One of the difficulties has been there's been a succession of silver bullets that turned out to be hollow," he said. "So I think one just has to be really careful and sober about recognizing there are very serious risks in the situation ... and that the process of improvement will take time."
Associated Press Writer Jay Lindsay in Boston contributed to this report.
American consumers clobbered by housing, credit and financial fallout
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Beaten down and watching their wealth shrink, Americans are burrowing ever deeper -- cutting back on spending and spelling more trouble for the sinking economy.
One of the biggest problems saddling the country is damage from the housing market's collapse. Mounting foreclosures, falling home prices and soured mortgage investments are taking their toll on both individuals and businesses alike.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who is scheduled to speak via satellite Friday at a Berkeley, Calif., conference on the mortgage meltdown, is likely to call on government officials and lawmakers to keep working on ways to provide more relief.
The Bush administration is considering a plan that would help around 3 million struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure by having the government guarantee billions of dollars worth of distressed mortgages. The plan also could include loan modifications that would lower interest rates for a five-year period.
Fallout from the housing meltdown has spurred the worst global credit and financial crisis in more than a half century. To combat the problems, the government has taken a flurry of bold steps. The Treasury Department is pouring $250 billion into banks in return for partial ownership and the Fed this week started buying mounds of debt from companies. It also slashed interest rates to 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the last half century.
A new batch of economic reports out Friday is likely to offer fresh confirmation of the stresses weighing on American consumers. Income growth is expected to barely budge in September, inching up just 0.1 percent, according to economists' estimates. Consumers probably trimmed their spending during the month by 0.3 percent, economists predict.
And, given the weak jobs market, employers aren't expected to be overly generous with compensation to their employees. Workers' wages and benefit costs are expected to rise 0.7 percent during the third quarter, economists are forecasting. If that happens, it would mark the same size increase from the previous quarter.
All in all, the economy as a whole contracted at a 0.3 percent pace in the July-to-September quarter, reflecting a sharp pull-back by consumers. They ratcheted back spending by the largest amount in nearly three decades, the government reported Thursday. Consumers' disposable income took its biggest drop on records dating back to 1947. Retailers are bracing for a grim holiday buying season.
Economists say tougher times are still ahead. Believing consumers are cutting back even more right now, they predict a much larger economic decline -- anywhere from a 1 to 2 percent rate -- during the current October-December period. That would meet a classic definition of a recession -- two straight quarters of shrinking GDP.
The grim news comes just days before the nation picks the next president. Either Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain will inherit a deeply troubled economy and a record-high budget deficit that could cramp spending plans.
"I think it's very, very important not to hold out the prospect of silver bullets that will correct these crises," Lawrence Summers, a Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, said in Boston on Thursday.
"One of the difficulties has been there's been a succession of silver bullets that turned out to be hollow," he said. "So I think one just has to be really careful and sober about recognizing there are very serious risks in the situation ... and that the process of improvement will take time."
Associated Press Writer Jay Lindsay in Boston contributed to this report.
直属学院艺术系举办赵维平老师个人画展
9月24日上午，直属学院艺术系在图书馆二楼举办赵维平老师专场画展。省电大校长温海昌、工会主席丁胡诚、直属学院副院长刘红兵、艺术系主任李俊生和艺术系的老师、老专家等参加了画展。 赵维平老师长期从事美术专业绘画基础课及专业基础课的教学工作。在教学工作中他严谨治学，在日常生活中关心学生，待人热情、为人诚恳，深受师生好评。赵老师在艺术探索中，侧重于油画创作和研究，他的画风苍劲、古朴，功底扎实，色彩浑厚。在创作中追求写诗中求寓意，平淡中求内涵的艺术风格。他的作品多次参加全国各种绘画比赛并获奖。此次展出作品是赵老师近十年来创作的部分佳作。
直属学院举办“迎七一、爱祖国”合唱比赛
为丰富校园文化生活，歌颂祖国发展的光辉历程，歌颂改革开放的巨大成就，弘扬爱国主义、集体主义精神，提高学生艺术修养，加强对爱国主义教育的深刻认识和理性处理，促进校园精神文明建设。直属学院于6月17日在图书馆二楼多功能厅举办了“理性爱国，心系灾区，唱响奥运”系列团学活动——“迎七一、爱中华”合唱比赛。直属学院副院长王春先、艺术系主任李俊生、党支部书记司松林与全体师生共同观看了演出。 本次比赛共有19支学生方队1000余人参赛，各参赛队送上了《北京欢迎你》、《让世界充满爱》、《我和我的祖国》等一系列曲风优美、精彩纷呈的歌曲。各方队表演准备充分，精神饱满，台风端正，其表现力震撼全场，才艺展示精彩纷呈，整个过程高潮迭起，唱出了当代大学生朝气蓬勃、积极向上的精神风貌，体现了新时代青年爱祖国、爱人民、爱学习、爱劳动的优良品格，增强师生的凝聚力、向心力和集体荣誉感，抒发了爱国热情。
魏家盛、买德润鱼骨画艺术作品展
6月4日上午，直属学院在图书馆二楼举办魏家盛、买德润鱼骨画艺术作品展。此次作品展是由原周口军分区司令员魏家盛和原省电大副校长买德润夫妇潜心创作完成的。省电大党委副书记李爱华、闻金宝和工会主席丁胡诚以及直属学院院长陈宗彬、副院长刘红兵、艺术系主任李俊生、副主任王胜军参观了艺术展。李爱华副书记发表了热情洋溢的讲话，高度赞扬了两位老同志孜孜不倦的创作精神和高超的艺术表现能力，殷切希望大学生们要学习他们热爱生活、热爱艺术的可贵品质，努力学习，报效社会。 此次展示的鱼骨画作品有梅、兰、竹、菊、松、葡萄、南海风光、花鸟盆景等六十余件，其作品构思精巧大气，并配以一生戎马生涯的感慨词句，感染力强，观赏性、思想性、艺术性、实用性皆备，充分展现了他们深厚的艺术造诣，体现了一位老军人丰富的内心世界。作品从原料收集到立意创作、构图经营，他们共同探索、互相协作，倾注了很多心血，这种全身心为艺术奉献的精神、以及孜孜不倦的创作态度值得大家尤其是在校大学生的学习和敬重。
省直电大组织学生参观《鲁迅读书生活》展览
4月26日上午，省直电大100余名汉语言专业学生在学生科、教学科老师的带领下，徒步来到河南博物院参观了《鲁迅的读书生活》展览。 在听取了省博物院和北京鲁迅博物馆领导的开展演讲之后，同学们有序的走进展览大厅，仔细观看展览的每一幅图片，有的拿出纸笔做记录，有的拿出相机拍摄珍贵的照片，有的边看边认真记忆和思考… 本次参观展览，通过观看大量的历史图片，使大家比较系统地了解了鲁迅一生与书相伴，读书、著书、译书的生涯，受到了很大教育、启发和鞭策。
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